Editorial: The Year The Subscription Model Died

What began as a year in review editorial, morphed into an analysis of the evidence 2007 gave us that the subscription model was on its way out in North America and Europe. In this article, I look at the historic evidence and where things might head in 2008 and beyond.

All the evidence suggests that World of Warcraft is not the harbinger of an expanded marketplace, but an aberration, a lightning strike at the right moment. Among Western audiences - as it was among Eastern audiences years ago - the subscription based MMORPG is at best on life support and more than likely on its way out the door.

The one-two punch of WoW and Guild Wars in 2004 has delivered a significant blow to the prospects of any company that has the audacity to charge their subscribers a monthly fee. Guild Wars showed that a high quality experience can be free and WoW redefined what people expect for that $14.95 a month.

Read more after the click.

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I'm seriously getting tired of those ignorant Americans (or Canadians).
Lotro DOES NOT HAVE 13 servers! You see, somewhere east of America there is a place called Europe. And there Codemasters have 10 more servers. So with all the American servers plus the European ones Lotro have 23 servers.

shangala:
I'm seriously getting tired of those ignorant Americans (or Canadians).
Lotro DOES NOT HAVE 13 servers! You see, somewhere east of America there is a place called Europe. And there Codemasters have 10 more servers. So with all the American servers plus the European ones Lotro have 23 servers.

Im with you bro, I really dont care where the ignorant folks come from i just care that they are ignorant. And this is what im talking about.

WoW casts a huge shadow and no one has been able to get out from under it. The evidence is in the numbers. Before WoW, EverQuest lorded over the genre with an estimated peak in the range of 500,000 subscribers. Star Wars Galaxies was at its most successful still considered a relative disappointment with over 300,000 subscribers. Games like Dark Age of Camelot once hovered well over the 200,000 mark. Then came WoW, now at 9.5 million and counting.

I mean i would understand this coming from some random dude posting in some game board spewing some crap, but this coming from a website that's supposedly informing us on MMO matters? i seriously expect better. I cannot believe that this seriously erroneous statement continues to be brought up time and again.

You are comparing the numbers of the subs from one single country from one MMO versus the number from an MMO that's been released in like 27 countries, I dont know the actual number of countries but im pretty sure its in the double digits. It's supposed to have 9 million plus subs, this is what happens when you have your product released to a wide number of possible customers. An easy example can be taken from the limited relase movies vs the ones released wide. Limited released films are not going to get a 70 million plus opening weekends, limited released movies are not in the top 10,20,30,50 films that made the most cash.

In most of those countries WOW probably has a number of subs that equals what EQ, SWG, or DAOC has in the US alone. Everyone is always making a fuss over the numbers WOW has ignoring the fact of how it got those numbers. In fact if it didnt have those numbers WOW would be a total failure. I mean seriously people, go look at MMOs that have been released in several countries and check their subs and compared those to WOW. After you find this information then you can make a decision of how big of a hit WOW is.

You know what? Just go check the subs that Maplestory has then compare that number to WOW.

I've always read into most of these kinds of numbers as companies hiding behind the fact that they can no longer get away with releasing sub-par, unpolished, mostly unoriginal IP games and expect to get away with it in a market where people typically invest their time in one subscription at a time.

It's no surprise that the stand out games mentioned are City of Heroes and Eve Online. The two games with the most effort put into overall polish and pushing a unique game world.

And the others? Pretty much universally showing either a lack of polish, being bug-ridden on release, or using an existing or me-too IP to push their game out. Lord of the Rings has done a decent job, and has a respectable player base for what it is. But in the end it's riding on the coat tails of a bought IP, and the people who aren't already elf'd out from the years of fantasy in between.

WoW combined out of the door polish with a developing world that was right on the tail of Warcraft 3 and a thriving existing online community from that. And spiraled up from there. Sure it's generic fantasy, but there's reams of lore there in some form, there's well thought out player experience all the way through the game, there's a noticeable lack of critical game breaking bugs.

It's not the death of a subscription model, it's the death of low standards trying to milk the public at large, and that same public opening their eyes to what is available to them and what they will put up with.

Of course a lot of that comes from being able to front the funding to put that level of polish on a game, and that's what the VC needs to see before putting it up on the next gen games. Yes, it takes money to make money, and Blizzard has a lot of the money that such things take.

I'm not even particularly enamored with the WoW game world. I've just played one uninspired and buggy game after another. And there's nothing comparable out right now. LotRO is the closest, but at this stage in the game with the world type it represents, it's an on par me-to at best that's still playing catch-up content wise with WoW. It may be a good game, but at this level, WoW simply has more available for the same price.

You take an original game world and give it serious polish before release, while providing for multiple play styles (pvp, pve, social, non social, economy), and watch it bloom.

It's just astounding that these arguments basically come down to "Well, that's a lot of work, buy my game instead!"

Edit: As a note, I happen to have three active subscriptions currently. WoW, Eve, and City of Heroes/Villians (although the CoH one lapses occasionally as I only play it when my friends are)

This isn't a matter of ingorant American or Canadian, it is ignorant people in general.

I love the fact that the author used the title "The Year The Subscription Model Died" and then goes on with these games that are subscription based and acts like her point was made, in fact she does the opposite.

You did not list one game that is not subscription based, all MMO's are subcription based. So the author is a bit more educated about the MMO world, subscriptions are their profit and suppose to support the hardware/dev team that provide the updates.

There are 9 million people paying subcriptions to Blizzard right now...that doesn't turn the light bulb off in your head? That bit of information tells me that subscriptions are at the hight of their existance.

I think the only thing that might indicate that subscription game is at an end is that the month fee has not gone over $15US, but that is almost pure profit and keeps the market wider as well.

Funnily enough WAR has over 500,000 applicants for their Beta.

The former, a glorified expansion pack to City of Heroes, reinvigorated the game and sold well. The later came into view with a massive intellectual property behind it ...

Is it odd that my only quirk with the article is that the word "latter" is incorrectly used? (former and latter; now and later)