Wake Up. The Matrix Has You.

Like a good mind bender? Nick Bostrom, PhD, Oxford University Research Fellow, has written a paper that presents the logical argument that, assuming the human race doesn't go extinct fairly soon, the statistical probability that we really are living in a Matrix-like simulation of human history is mind-bogglingly high.

Of course even my 100 level philosophy class covered concepts like this but it's fun seeing it written out in a serious research format. It's rather lengthy and, well, Oxford-y, so to get to the fun part, here's Dr. Bostrom's conclusion:

A technologically mature "posthuman" civilization would have enormous computing power. Based on this empirical fact, the simulation argument shows that at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage is very close to zero; (2) The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running ancestor-simulations is very close to zero; (3) The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one.

If (1) is true, then we will almost certainly go extinct before reaching posthumanity. If (2) is true, then there must be a strong convergence among the courses of advanced civilizations so that virtually none contains any relatively wealthy individuals who desire to run ancestor-simulations and are free to do so. If (3) is true, then we almost certainly live in a simulation. In the dark forest of our current ignorance, it seems sensible to apportion one's credence roughly evenly between (1), (2), and (3).

Unless we are now living in a simulation, our descendants will almost certainly never run an ancestor-simulation.

So in short, it's fairly certain that - The Matrix Has You. :)

Feeling brave? Read Dr. Bostrom's paper.